Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
